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Germany actually blocking the development of the UNITED NATIONS to become an
effective System of Collective Security?
THE LAW OF THE REVERSAL OF TENDENCIES
by Klaus Schlichtmann
ART. IX / 第九条
The International Union of the Hague Peace Conferences
and the Quest for an effective UNITED NATIONS ORGANIZATION
Deutsch lernen in Tokio?
Täglich sterben über einhunderttausend Menschen an Hunger.
CHARTE DES NATIONS UNIS ◄
THE DAILY YOMIURI,
October 19 , 2003
Copyright © 2003 Earth Policy Institute
GLOBAL WARMING CREATING FUTURE
This year's world grain harvest is falling short of
consumption by 93 million tons, dropping world grain stocks to the lowest level
in 30 years. As rising temperatures and falling water tables hamstring farmers'
efforts to expand production, prices of wheat and rice are turning upward.
For the first time, the grain harvest has fallen short of consumption four years
in a row. In 2000, the shortfall was a modest 16 million tons; in 2001 it was 27
million tons; and in 2002 a record-smashing 96 million tons. In its September 11
crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that this year's
shrunken harvest of only 1,818 million tons is falling short of estimated
consumption of 1,911 million tons by a near-record 93 million tons. (See
Agricultural leaders are now looking to next year's crop with fingers crossed.
If 2004 brings another large shortfall comparable to this year or last year,
there could be chaos in world grain markets by this time next year as more than
100 grain-importing countries scramble for scarce exportable supplies.
Higher temperatures are thwarting farmers' efforts to expand food production.
The earth's average temperature has been rising since the late 1970s, with the
three warmest years on record coming in the last five years. As temperatures
continue to rise, crop yields start to fall.
Last year India and the United States suffered sharp harvest reductions because
of record temperatures and drought. This year Europe bore the brunt of higher
temperatures. Record heat in late summer scorched harvests from the United
Kingdom and France in the west through Ukraine in the east. Bread prices are
rising in several countries in the region.
After several years of seeing crops withered by heat, scientists are now
beginning to focus on the precise effect of temperature on crop yields. New
research from crop ecologists at the International Rice Research Institute and
the USDA's Agriculture Research Service shows an emerging consensus that a
1-degree Celsius rise in temperature (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the optimum
during the growing season leads to a 10-percent decline in grain yields.
How much will the earth's temperature rise? The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)—with some 1,500 of the
world's leading climate scientists—is projecting a
rise of 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) during this
century if carbon emissions continue to increase. Farmers on the land now are
facing the prospect of higher temperatures than those faced by any generation of
farmers since agriculture began.
Although the IPCC projections are presented as global averages, the rise in
temperature will be geographically uneven. Temperature rise is projected to be
much greater over land than over the sea, in higher latitudes than in equatorial
regions, and in the interior of continents than in coastal regions. The higher
latitudes and continental interiors where the projected temperature rise is to
be greatest neatly defines the North American breadbasket—the
wheat-growing Great Plains of the United States and Canada and the U.S. Corn
This generation of farmers is also the first to face widespread aquifer
depletion due in part to the use of powerful diesel and electric pumps that have
become widely available only in the last few decades. Prospects for the big
three grain producers—China, India, and the United
States, which account for nearly half of the world's grain harvest—show
the potential consequences of future water shortages.
Under the North China Plain, which produces half of China's wheat and a third of
its corn, water tables are falling up to 3 meters per year. A World Bank
assessment of China's water situation says, "Anecdotal evidence suggests that
deep wells [drilled] around Beijing now have to reach 1,000 meters [more than
half a mile] to tap fresh water, adding dramatically to the cost of supply." In
unusually strong language for a Bank report, it foresees "catastrophic
consequences for future generations" unless water use and supply can quickly be
brought back into balance.
In India, water tables are falling throughout most of the country. As a result,
thousands of wells are going dry each year. The USDA reports that water tables
have dropped by more than 100 feet (30 meters) in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and
Kansas. Water supplies are even tighter in California.
Overpumping for irrigation is a way of satisfying the growing demand for food
today that almost guarantees a future drop in food production when the aquifer
is depleted. For a few countries, the day of reckoning with aquifer depletion is
already here. For many others it is drawing near.
Over the last four years the world's farmers have fallen further and further
behind the growth in grain demand. We must now at least ask the question: Are
the positive influences on production, such as advances in technology and
investment in land improvement, largely being offset by negative influences,
such as soil erosion, aquifer depletion, and rising temperature?
Since there has not been any growth in world grain production in eight years,
the answer to that question may be yes. If so, we will need to move quickly to
stabilize population, raise water productivity, and stabilize climate. If future
grain shortages lead to dramatic price rises, they could destabilize governments
in low-income grain-importing countries, disrupting global economic progress.
Food security could quickly become the overriding security issue.
With most of the nearly 3 billion people who are due to be added to world
population by 2050 coming in countries where wells are already going dry, there
is an urgent need to stabilize population size as soon as possible. Some 34
countries have already stabilized their population. It is time for the remaining
150 countries to do so.
With water shortages spreading, we need a concerted global effort to raise water
productivity, one patterned on the highly successful effort to raise land
productivity that was launched a half century ago and that has nearly tripled
world grain yields since then.
With rising temperature now shrinking harvests, we need to get serious about
stabilizing climate, going far beyond the global goal set in the Kyoto Protocol
of a 5-percent cut in carbon emissions by 2012. Reducing fossil fuel use is the
key to stabilizing climate. It is perhaps a commentary on the complexity of our
time that decisions made in ministries of energy may have a greater effect on
food security than those made in ministries of agriculture.
Future food security may depend not only on stabilizing population, raising
water productivity, and stabilizing climate, but on doing all these things at
wartime speed. A plan to do this is detailed in the new book
Plan B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble.
The Japanese edition of the book will be available in the middle o9f next mo9nth
through Ieno Hikari.
Peace Constitutions 平和憲法
ZITATE & SPRÜCHE
フリードリッヒ • ニーチェ:
Deutsch 日本語 français
Human, All too Human
284 The means to real peace. -
No government nowadays admits that it maintains
an army so as to satisfy occasional thirsts for conquest; the army is supposed
to be for defence. That morality which sanctions self-protection is called upon
to be its advocate. But that means to reserve morality to oneself and to accuse
one‘s neighbour of immorality, since he has to be thought of as ready for
aggression and conquest if our own state is obliged to take thought of means of
self-defence; moreover, when our neighbour denies any thirst for aggression just
as heatedly as our State does,
and protests that he too maintains an army only for reasons of legitimate
self-defence, our declaration of why we require an army declares our neighbour a
hypocrite and cunning criminal who would be only too happy to pounce upon a harmless and unprepared victim and
subdue him without a struggle. This is how all states now confront one another:
they presuppose an evil disposition in their neighbour and a benevolent
disposition in themselves. This presupposition, however, is a piece of inhumanity as bad as, if not worse than, a war
would be; indeed, fundamentally it already constitutes an invitation to and
cause of wars, because, as aforesaid, it imputes immorality to one‘s neighbour
and thereby seems to provoke hostility and hostile acts on his part. The
doctrine of the army as a means of self-defence must be renounced just as
completely as the thirst for conquest. And perhaps there will come a great day
on which a nation distinguished for wars and victories and for the highest
development of military discipline and thinking, and accustomed to making the
heaviest sacrifices on behalf of these things, will cry of its own free will: ,we shall shatter the sword‘ - and demolish its entire military
machine down to its last foundations. To
disarm while being the best armed, out
of anelevation of sensibility
- that is the means to real peace, which must always rest on a
disposition for peace: whereas the so-called armed peace such as now parades
about in every country is a disposition to fractiousness which trusts neither
itself nor its neighbour and fails to lay down its arms half out of hatred, half
out of fear. Better to perish than to hate and fear, and twofold better to perish than to make
oneself hated and feared - this must one day become the supreme
maxim of every individual state! - As is well known, our liberal representatives
of the people lack the time to reflect on the nature of man: otherwise they
would know that they labour in vain when they work for a ,gradual reduction of
the military burden‘. On
the contrary, it is only when this kind of distress is at its greatest that the
only kind of god that can help here will be closest at hand. The
tree of the glory of war can be destroyed only at a single stroke, by a
lightning-bolt: lightning, however, as you well know, comes out of a cloud and
from on high. (R.J. Hollingdale, transl., Human, All Too Human. A Book for Free
Spirits, Cambridge Texts in the History of Philosophy (1996), pp. 380-81)